There is politics and there’s the Nigerian politics and that seems to be what we see in the Nigerian arena as the 2027 election draws close.
Recent events have highlighted the relationship between former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai and President Bola Tinubu, leading to speculations and rumours about an undercover collaboration designed to manipulate the political opposition for strategic gains.
Remember that in July 2023, President Tinubu nominated Nasir El-Rufai for a ministerial position, alongside 27 others. However, El-Rufai’s confirmation was withheld due to a negative security report from the Department of State Services (DSS), Nigeria’s secret police.
This development raised eyebrows, especially considering El-Rufai’s prominent political stature. The DSS’s report pointed to the former Kaduna State governor’s past statements and actions, tagging him a potential diplomatic liability.
Later, the former FCT Minister asserted that it was President Tinubu, not the National Assembly, who opposed his ministerial appointment. He suggested that the Senate’s refusal was merely a facade, stating, “The president didn’t want me in his cabinet.” This assertion has fueled theories that the entire episode was a plot, to add add color and believability to an underlying strategy.
Also, the public fallout between Tinubu and El-Rufai could be perceived as a deliberate maneuver to create an illusion of dispute. By pretending to be hostile, El-Rufai puts himself in the position of a sympathetic figure among the opposition parties, potentially gaining their trust. This tactic matches with the classic political strategies where controlled opposition is used to penetrate and scatter an opposing group from within: a properly calculated decoy.
Further adding to the excitement, the former FCT Minister has asserted that certain individuals paid to secure ministerial appointments under Tinubu’s administration. He claimed to have an insider knowledge of such transactions, stressing that he never begged for any position. These allegations were for the following purposes: to tarnish the credibility of current ministers, to cause confusion within the ruling party, and potentially make EL-Rufai endearing to the opposition parties as a whistleblower against corruption.
By inserting himself within opposition circles in the disguise of a disgruntled insider, El-Rufai could set up strategies that appear to challenge Tinubu’s administration while quietly turning the outcomes in favor of Tinubu.
This form of controlled opposition can be a powerful tool, allowing the ruling party to expect and counteract serious threats, rather than be taken unaware or speculate on what the oppositions are planning. Such a strategy could be pivotal in directing Tinubu’s reelection, because, it enables the manipulation of opposition efforts, rendering them ineffective.
Meanwhile, a chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Joe Igbokwe, has claimed that the Social Democratic Party (SDP) was under the control of President Bola Tinubu, who doubled as the leader of the APC. This happened to be the same party El-Rufui defected to.
While concrete evidence of a strategic alliance between Nasir El-Rufai and President Bola Tinubu remains speculative, the series of recent events suggests a meticulously crafted strategy. By portraying a public rift and positioning himself as an ally to the opposition, El-Rufai could be executing a plan to infiltrate and destabilize adversarial forces, ultimately to Tinubu’s advantage.
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